Spatial Analysis For Simulation The Changing Of Inland Water Depth: A Case Study In The Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Abstract

Vietnam is one of the most affected countries by the global sea-level rise, in which the Mekong Delta is the most heavily impacted area due to the low-lying position. By combining spatial geostatistics and Kriging interpolation techniques to delineate the elevation maps with the assumption of inland water level increasing under sea-level rise by interpolating 967 elevations geo-rectified data from the topographic map at 1/250,000 scale. The inland water level maps with different inundated inland water level scenarios from 0.2 to 2.8m were delineated.

The result showed that the exponential model selected for interpolation of elevation data, distance A₀ = 585.900 meters; coefficiency R² = 0,985; and Residue Sum of Square RSS = 0,0011; which were suitable and thus was used for interpolation. Inland inundated water levels maps of 14 sea level rise scenarios from 0.2 to 2.8m were delineated. They also evaluated the Impact on inland water level rise, based on the pressure of sea-level rise on land lost, population migration, and food security of the Mekong River Delta. As a result, the Mekong Delta has initially affected water levels rise at 0.6m, and the whole region will be affected due to sea-level rise up to 2.8m. In these scenarios, part of the Ca Mau peninsula such as Bac Lieu, Ca Mau, and Kien Giang provinces will be most affected.