Assessing the Impact of Changing Climate on Crop Water Requirements in Nigeria.

Abstract

Climate change is a phenomenon most of the world is recently coming to terms with but unfortunately, the African region is yet to fully understand and prepare for its effects. The change is predicted to herald positive results likewise potentially severe consequences for global food security. This study aims to improve the understanding of the impact these changes being experienced in the Nigerian climate system will have on Crop Water Requirements (CWR) for optimal productivity. Five statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs): CCCMA, NOAA, MIROC, ICHEC, and NCC were applied in the estimation of CWR through the period 1985–2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5. These were used to produce values of crop water requirement in the years 1985 – 2100 (1985-2015; 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 for the 36 states in Nigeria and the FCT and the values obtained were further subjected to trend analysis. Results showed that CWR increased throughout the period considered for this study as well as CWR correlating strongly with temperature and weakly with rainfall throughout same period. This shows that CWR is largely affected by temperature.