Dry and wet spell probability analysis by Markov chain model for Kohima ( Nagaland), India

Abstract

For the purpose of crop planning and to carryout the agricultural practices it is important to know the sequence of dry and wet periods. The present study was undertaken with the objectives to forecast dry and wet spell analysis using Markov Chain Model for Kohima                 ( Nagaland).The results indicated that probability of occurrence of dry week is higher from week no. 1 to 16 and also from week numbers. 41 to 52. The range of probability of occurrence of dry week in these weeks varies from 55.56 to 100 per cent. The probability of occurrence of dry week preceded by another dry week is higher in week no.1 to 13,15 , 41, 43-52. The range of probability occurrence of dry week preceded by another dry week in these weeks is ranging from 36.36 to 50 per cent. There is 22.22 to 50 per cent probability that two consecutive dry weeks would occur from week numbers 1 to 13, 15, 41 and 43 to 52.  The probability of occurrence of three consecutive dry weeks was found very low varying from 0 to 16.67 per cent in most of the weeks.